Tom, you’re right to highlight Sudan as a possible “hot spot” for constitutional reform in 2010 (and beyond), but not necessarily in the context of “crisis.” This isn’t to say some sort of crisis is out of the question (or even unlikely), but it is not the only scenario in which meaningful constitutional reform might take place.
The two states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile are just now embarking on the CPA-mandated process of “popular consultation,” in which they are to ascertain the “will of the people” on “shortcomings in the constitutional, political, and administrative arrangements of the [CPA].” During 2010 both states plan to engage in intense broad-based grassroots consultations that will mirror other recent efforts at constitutional reform in Africa. (Just this week leaders of the two states were in Kenya speaking to officials from Kenya’s current and previous constitution-making exercises.)
Should the people of these two states decide “shortcomings” do in fact exist (a foregone conclusion if the process unfolds without undue manipulation or obstruction) new legal, administrative, and institutional arrangements are to be negotiated with Khartoum. While not explicitly stated, many believe the outcomes from these negotiations should be constitutionalized – either as amendments to the existing interim constitution or as part of a larger constitutional process.
While “popular consultation” envisions the two states remain part of the north – it provides a mechanism for them to negotiate wealth and power-sharing arrangements that could potentially remake northern Sudan into the type of federal state many believe critical to its sustainability. What’s more, this process is unlikely to end with Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile but instead could provide a model for other discontented areas of Sudan (most notably Darfur and the eastern states) to negotiate their own wealth and power-sharing arrangements.
While the eyes of most Sudan watchers will skip from the April 2010 elections straight to the January 2011 referendum – they will be missing a potentially critical and organic process unfolding in these two border states. Popular consultation is potentially important for the unifying and reconciling impact it could have on the states themselves, the changes it could produce in the relationship between the states and Khartoum, and the precedent it could set for other aggrieved areas in Sudan – all of which could impact Sudan’s constitution.